← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 45% | 30% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.51 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 27% | 41% | 3.66 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Alexandru Maxim · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Nils Petersen · SC Freiburg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Nicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg |
| 74' | 🟨 | Julian Schuster · SC Freiburg |
| 88' | 🟨 | Robin Quaison · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florian Kath · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Emil Berggreen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 0.40 |
| coach days | 2186.00 | 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1604.10 | 1648.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.96 | 9.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 25.32 |
| state index | -0.68 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |