← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 51% | 45% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.69 | value: +5% |
| 1. FC Köln win | 22% | 27% | 4.41 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Daniel Brosinski · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 71' | 🟥 | Giulio Donati · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · 1. FC Köln |
| 86' | 🟨 | Frederik Sørensen · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 0 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 201.00 | 1631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1522.80 | 1484.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.24 | -11.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 0.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |