← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 49% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.49 | fair |
| Hertha win | 23% | 23% | 4.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 20' | 🟨 | Per Ciljan Skjelbred · Hertha |
| 41' | ⚽ | Yunus Malli · Wolfsburg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Karim Rekik · Hertha |
| 60' | ⚽ | Divock Origi · Wolfsburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Davie Selke · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 48.00 | 1008.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1546.17 | 1536.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.77 | -3.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |