← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 37% | 38% | 2.64 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 36% | 38% | 2.74 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Dennis Geiger · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 22' | 🟨 | Kevin Vogt · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 28' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · 1. FC Köln |
| 37' | 🟨 | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kerem Demirbay · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 55' | 🟨 | Paweł Olkowski · 1. FC Köln |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Sandro Wagner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 64' | 🟨 | Miloš Jojić · 1. FC Köln |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sandro Wagner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sandro Wagner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 22 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1618.00 | 643.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1497.23 | 1649.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.54 | -15.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 46.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 2.88 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.72 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |