← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 54% | 53% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.99 | value: +9% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 21% | 20% | 4.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Ante Rebić · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 24' | ⚽ | Niklas Moisander · SV Werder Bremen |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sébastien Haller · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 612.00 | 33.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1525.55 | 1522.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.92 | -39.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| league points | 15.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.42 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |