← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 47% | 42% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 26% | 36% | 3.82 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Thomas Delaney · SV Werder Bremen |
| 61' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 28.00 | 515.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1666.49 | 1659.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.09 | -1.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.78 |
| league points | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.56 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.01 | 26.68 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | -1.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |