← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Stieler, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 52% | 50% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.88 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 23% | 24% | 4.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟥 | Çağlar Söyüncü · SC Freiburg |
| 15' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · VfB Stuttgart |
| 38' | ⚽ | Daniel Ginczek · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ | Benjamin Pavard · VfB Stuttgart |
| 53' | 🟨 | Santiago Ascacíbar · VfB Stuttgart |
| 80' | 🟨 | Andreas Beck · VfB Stuttgart |
| 82' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days | 546.00 | 2159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1538.32 | 1511.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.76 | 12.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 22.01 | — |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |