← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 51% | 56% | 1.93 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 22% | 18% | 4.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Naldo · FC Schalke 04 |
| 42' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Bentaleb · FC Schalke 04 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Caligiuri · FC Schalke 04 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Amine Harit · FC Schalke 04 |
| 81' | 🟨 | Yunus Malli · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Guido Burgstaller · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Divock Origi · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days | 149.00 | 40.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1640.60 | 1541.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.33 | 10.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.67 | — |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |