← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 68% | 69% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.15 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 13% | 12% | 7.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 241.00 | 1610.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1613.91 | 1486.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.55 | -34.89 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| league points | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | — |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 22.44 | — |
| state index | 0.70 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |