← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 38% | 45% | 2.57 | value: +17% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 34% | 27% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Salih Özcan · 1. FC Köln |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ishak Belfodil · SV Werder Bremen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Simon Zoller · 1. FC Köln |
| 52' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · SV Werder Bremen |
| 58' | 🟨 | Izet Hajrović · SV Werder Bremen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Miloš Jojić · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1604.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1487.00 | 1543.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.62 | -27.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.80 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.13 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |