← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 38% | 36% | 2.60 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 35% | 37% | 2.81 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Lars Stindl · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jannik Vestergaard · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 65' | 🟨 | Izet Hajrović · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 14.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1681.84 | 1734.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.56 | -5.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 26.38 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |