← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Ittrich, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 63% | 62% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | 4.65 | value: +6% |
| Wolfsburg win | 16% | 15% | 6.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Lars Bender · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 38' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 41' | 🟨 | Lars Bender · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 44' | ⚽ | Divock Origi · Wolfsburg |
| 61' | ⚽ | Lucas Alario · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jakub Błaszczykowski · Wolfsburg |
| 78' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 228.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1593.18 | 1536.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.23 | -3.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.44 | — |
| state index | 0.44 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |