← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 54% | 60% | 1.83 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.78 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 20% | 18% | 4.81 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Alexandru Maxim · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 9' | ⚽ | Walace · Hamburger SV |
| 42' | 🟨 | Mërgim Mavraj · Hamburger SV |
| 52' | ⚽ | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 58' | ⚽ | Danny Latza · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 73' | 🟨 | Abdou Diallo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Sejad Salihovic · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 166.00 | 408.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1639.34 | 1613.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.53 | -44.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 49.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 67.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.38 | 25.52 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.63 | -0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |