← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Oct 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 90% | 79% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 15% | 14.00 | value: +105% |
| SC Freiburg win | 3% | 7% | 36.00 | value: +144% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 8.00 | 2144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.37 |
| elo | 2016.03 | 1643.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.46 | 8.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.55 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.81 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.20 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.41 | -1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 25.62 |
| state index | 1.57 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -1.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |