← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 43% | 45% | 2.27 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 30% | 29% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Robin Hack · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 15' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · SC Freiburg |
| 18' | ⚽ | Çağlar Söyüncü · SC Freiburg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sandro Wagner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 33' | 🟨 | Benjamin Hübner · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 68' | 🟨 | Janik Haberer · SC Freiburg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Dennis Geiger · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 87' | ⚽ | Pascal Stenzel · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Julian Schuster · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 2131.00 | 608.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1630.08 | 1796.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.92 | -20.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.40 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.49 | 25.64 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.49 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |