← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 44% | 45% | 2.23 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 27% | 26% | 3.59 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Yunus Malli · Wolfsburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Josuha Guilavogui · Wolfsburg |
| 70' | 🟨 | Levin Öztunali · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 74' | ⚽ | Yoshinori Muto · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Danny Latza · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Paul-Georges Ntep · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul-Georges Ntep · Wolfsburg |
| 90' | 🟥 | Paul-Georges Ntep · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.39 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 12.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1538.91 | 1518.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.24 | 8.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -1.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |