← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 58% | 61% | 1.70 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.10 | fair |
| Hannover win | 18% | 18% | 5.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 66' | 🟨 | Pirmin Schwegler · Hannover |
| 67' | ⚽ | Matthias Ginter · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 68' | 🟨 | Oscar Wendt · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 71' | ⚽ | Martin Harnik · Hannover |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Thorgan Hazard · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 303.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.79 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1727.80 | 1656.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.24 | 25.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.89 |
| league points | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.32 | 26.67 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |