← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 38% | 31% | 2.61 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 34% | 43% | 2.92 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Robert Bauer · SV Werder Bremen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kyriakos Papadopoulos · Hamburger SV |
| 83' | 🟨 | Theodor Gebre Selassie · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Zetterer · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 27 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 394.00 | 1582.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1613.56 | 1682.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.68 | -17.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.96 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.94 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.03 | 26.37 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.45 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |