← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Kampka, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 70% | 68% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.30 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 12% | 13% | 8.25 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 207.00 | 388.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1703.21 | 1624.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.39 | -5.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.42 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| league points | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | -2.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 24.21 | 26.34 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -1.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |