← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sun, Sep 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.57 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 25% | 32% | 3.85 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Frederik Sørensen · 1. FC Köln |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kenan Karaman · Hannover |
| 53' | 🟨 | Julian Korb · Hannover |
| 62' | 🟨 | Konstantin Rausch · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ihlas Bebou · Hannover |
| 89' | 🟨 | Manuel Schmiedebach · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
| 1 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days | 207.00 | 1576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1572.56 | 1518.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.29 | -62.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | — |
| season ppg | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.65 | -1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |