← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 55% | 64% | 1.79 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.02 | fair |
| SC Freiburg win | 21% | 16% | 4.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Robert Bauer · SV Werder Bremen |
| 19' | 🟨 | Florian Kainz · SV Werder Bremen |
| 40' | 🟨 | Çağlar Söyüncü · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1575.00 | 2123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1685.38 | 1626.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.12 | -20.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -1.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 38.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -1.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.84 | 25.51 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |