← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 45% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.46 | fair |
| FC Augsburg win | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Caiuby · FC Augsburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Santiago Ascacíbar · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days | 510.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1623.62 | 1672.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.29 | 32.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.69 | -1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.50 | 27.44 |
| state index | 0.26 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -1.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |