← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 86% | 89% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 8% | 11.05 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 5% | 3% | 20.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Arturo Vidal · FC Bayern München |
| 18' | 🟨 | Marcel Tisserand · Wolfsburg |
| 25' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Lewandowski · FC Bayern München |
| 42' | ⚽ | Arjen Robben · FC Bayern München |
| 56' | ⚽ | Maximilian Arnold · Wolfsburg |
| 83' | ⚽ | Daniel Didavi · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 21.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.33 | 1.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1907.70 | 1530.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.05 | -9.23 |
| eye test v1 | 2.14 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | — |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.42 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.80 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.56 | — |
| state index | 1.64 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.18 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |