← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Manuel Gräfe, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 38% | 39% | 2.57 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 34% | 36% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 142.00 | 597.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1516.34 | 1674.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.34 | 8.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.72 |
| league points | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |