← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71% | 66% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.69 | value: +9% |
| Hamburger SV win | 11% | 15% | 8.57 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 384.00 | 111.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1632.57 | 1899.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.73 | 19.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 1.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 71.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 14.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 21.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.36 | 2.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 25.58 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.24 | 1.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.73 | 1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |