← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Wed, Sep 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Petersen, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 38% | 34% | 2.61 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 33% | 34% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.33 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Sébastien Haller · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 30' | 🟨 | Matthias Lehmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 37' | 🟨 | Konstantin Rausch · 1. FC Köln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Taleb Tawatha · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1572.00 | 568.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1531.53 | 1487.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.20 | -1.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.90 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.58 |
| league points | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |