← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Tue, Sep 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sören Storks, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 57% | 52% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.17 | fair |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 19% | 24% | 5.12 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | ⚽ | Raffael · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 72' | 🟨 | Simon Terodde · VfB Stuttgart |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Raffael · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 292.00 | 506.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1727.42 | 1632.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.28 | 3.59 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.20 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 25.62 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |