← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Tue, Sep 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 42% | 50% | 2.32 | value: +17% |
| FC Augsburg win | 31% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Michael Gregoritsch · FC Augsburg |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jan Morávek · FC Augsburg |
| 52' | 🟨 | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kevin Kampl · RB Leipzig |
| 78' | 🟨 | Daniel Baier · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days | 475.00 | 445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1661.21 | 1762.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.58 | 5.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.52 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.31 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 23.36 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.47 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |