← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 44% | 46% | 2.25 | value: +4% |
| Wolfsburg win | 29% | 25% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Koen Casteels · Wolfsburg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Chadrac Akolo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | 🟨 | William · Wolfsburg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Santiago Ascacíbar · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andreas Beck · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paul Verhaegh · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz Arena |
| coach days | 503.00 | 350.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1550.09 | 1539.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.08 | -9.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| league points | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |