← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Fri, Sep 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 50% | 44% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.63 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 23% | 31% | 4.24 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Waldemar Anton · Hannover |
| 50' | ⚽ | Martin Harnik · Hannover |
| 82' | ⚽ | Ihlas Bebou · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | HDI Arena |
| coach days | 198.00 | 379.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1644.75 | 1645.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.26 | 29.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.77 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.70 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 39.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -2.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.18 | 24.96 |
| state index | 0.85 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -1.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |