← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Zwayer, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 53% | 55% | 1.86 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.73 | fair |
| Hannover win | 21% | 17% | 4.64 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Julian Korb · Hannover |
| 52' | ⚽ | Daniel Didavi · Wolfsburg |
| 75' | ⚽ | Martin Harnik · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| coach days | 343.00 | 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1540.38 | 1561.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.13 | 45.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.87 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.99 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |