← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 45% | 40% | 2.16 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 28% | 32% | 3.51 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand