← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 50% | 42% | 1.97 | fair |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 26% | 28% | 3.75 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 4.06 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Kevin Vogt · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 28' | 🟨 | Karim Bellarabi · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 31' | 🟨 | Ermin Bičakčić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Wendell · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 47' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 49' | ⚽ | Karim Bellarabi · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mark Uth · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 89' | 🟨 | Wendell · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 178.00 | 572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1716.50 | 1795.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.99 | 14.77 |
| eye test v1 | 1.24 | 0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.53 | 25.45 |
| state index | 0.42 | 1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | 1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |