← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 50% | 57% | 1.95 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.81 | fair |
| Wolfsburg win | 24% | 20% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Christian Pulišić · Borussia Dortmund |
| 27' | ⚽ | Marc Bartra · Borussia Dortmund |
| 60' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 322.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1539.63 | 1759.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.29 | 6.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 17.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | 1.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| squad age | — | 25.38 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |