← Bundesliga 2017-18 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guido Winkmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 53% | 59% | 1.85 | value: +9% |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 24% | 21% | 4.12 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Robert Bauer · SV Werder Bremen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Ádám Szalai · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 78' | 🟨 | Maximilian Eggestein · SV Werder Bremen |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · SV Werder Bremen |
| 84' | ⚽ | Andrej Kramarić · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | WIRSOL Rhein-Neckar-Arena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 565.00 | 1540.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1665.49 | 1581.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.61 | -5.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.88 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.90 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.45 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |