← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Wolfgang Stark, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 78% | 76% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.23 | value: +9% |
| Darmstadt win | 8% | 9% | 12.05 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Christoph Kramer · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 50' | ⚽ | Thorgan Hazard · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 62' | ⚽ | Sven Schipplock · Darmstadt |
| 65' | ⚽ | Raffael · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcel Heller · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Borussia-Park |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 170.00 | 1631.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1739.70 | 1532.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.46 | 37.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 44.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.35 | 28.08 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |