← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Frank Willenborg, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 40% | 35% | 2.46 | fair |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 34% | 39% | 2.86 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Donis Avdijaj · FC Schalke 04 |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Pascal Groß · Ingolstadt |
| 47' | 🟨 | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 63' | 🟥 | Benjamin Stambouli · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernard Tekpetey · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Audi Sportpark |
| coach days | 189.00 | 353.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1590.38 | 1732.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.11 | 15.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| league points | 31.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.67 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.71 | 25.96 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |