← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Deniz Aytekin, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 46% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 27% | 25% | 3.58 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Javier Hernández · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 12' | 🟨 | Allan · Hertha |
| 31' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Vedad Ibišević · Hertha |
| 45' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 60' | 🟨 | Wendell · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 63' | 🟨 | Vladimír Darida · Hertha |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Stefan Kießling · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 71' | ⚽ | Mitchell Weiser · Hertha |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Charles Aránguiz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Sami Allagui · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion |
| coach days |
| 839.00 |
| 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1545.49 | 1575.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.42 | -27.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 49.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 22.41 |
| state index | -0.11 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |