← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Hartmann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Köln win | 66% | 54% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 28% | 5.11 | value: +45% |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 14% | 18% | 6.78 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Konstantin Rausch · 1. FC Köln |
| 43' | ⚽ | Jonas Hector · 1. FC Köln |
| 45' | 🟨 | Stefan Bell · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Lukas Klünter · 1. FC Köln |
| 87' | ⚽ | Yuya Osako · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FC Köln | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | RheinEnergieStadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1449.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1705.32 | 1651.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.53 | 22.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 46.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.29 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.28 | 26.05 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -1.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |