← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Felix Brych, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 38% | 46% | 2.55 | value: +16% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 34% | 32% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Marcel Sabitzer · RB Leipzig |
| 37' | 🟨 | Marco Fabián · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 56' | ⚽ | Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dominik Kaiser · RB Leipzig |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jesús Vallejo · Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 89' | 🟨 | Davie Selke · RB Leipzig |
| 90' | ⚽ | Danny Blum · Eintracht Frankfurt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eintracht Frankfurt | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Commerzbank-Arena |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 445.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1613.23 | 1757.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.62 | 19.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| league points | 41.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.63 | 24.36 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |