← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochen Drees, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bayern München win | 85% | 81% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 14% | 9.54 | value: +33% |
| SC Freiburg win | 5% | 5% | 19.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 33 | Shots | 19 |
| 11 | On target | 8 |
| 15 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Bayern München | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Allianz Arena |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 323.00 | 1997.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| elo | 2032.70 | 1660.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.74 | -10.14 |
| eye test v1 | 1.81 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 79.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.41 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.38 | 24.98 |
| state index | 1.91 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |