← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christian Dingert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsburg win | 47% | 49% | 2.09 | fair |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 27% | 22% | 3.58 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.82 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Jannik Vestergaard · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 45' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Wolfsburg |
| 49' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · Wolfsburg |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nico Schulz · Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| 58' | ⚽ | Mario Gómez · Wolfsburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Victor Osimhen · Wolfsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolfsburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Volkswagen Arena |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 224.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1672.97 | 1739.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.37 | -4.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.43 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 36.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.34 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 24.71 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |