← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 44% | 39% | 2.25 | fair |
| SV Werder Bremen win | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 28% | 4.22 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Weser-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 1442.00 | 467.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1724.91 | 1779.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.59 | -2.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.69 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 45.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 25.72 |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |