← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Markus Schmidt, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 54% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
| Hamburger SV win | 22% | 25% | 4.42 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | VELTINS-Arena |
| coach days |
| 346.00 |
| 254.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1623.58 | 1491.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.09 | -27.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.70 |
| league points | 41.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 62.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.92 | -1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.67 | — |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |