← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Fritz, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 52% | 56% | 1.87 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 20% | 22% | 4.84 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 16 | Fouls | 22 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Opel Arena |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 12.00 | 438.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1640.09 | 1625.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.68 | -14.67 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.50 |
| league points | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 25.21 |
| state index | 0.22 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |