← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gunter Perl, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 44% | 44% | 2.24 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.37 | fair |
| 1. FC Köln win | 27% | 26% | 3.61 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Miloš Jojić · 1. FC Köln |
| 49' | ⚽ | Lukas Klünter · 1. FC Köln |
| 60' | ⚽ | Stefan Kießling · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 62' | 🟨 | Matthias Lehmann · 1. FC Köln |
| 71' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Konstantin Rausch · 1. FC Köln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1. FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | BayArena |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 73.00 | 1442.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1700.97 | 1703.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.26 | -4.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.52 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.98 | 26.17 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -1.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |