← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastian Dankert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg win | 37% | 40% | 2.62 | value: +4% |
| Ingolstadt win | 36% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Maximilian Philipp · SC Freiburg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Ingolstadt |
| 61' | 🟨 | Roger · Ingolstadt |
| 69' | 🟨 | Darío Lezcano · Ingolstadt |
| 71' | 🟨 | Manuel Gulde · SC Freiburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amir Abrashi · SC Freiburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 27 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Freiburg | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Schwarzwald-Stadion |
| coach days | 1990.00 | 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1664.16 | 1586.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.21 | -11.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| league points | 47.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 66.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.63 | -1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.98 | 26.74 |
| state index | 0.31 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |