← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benjamin Brand, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 37% | 48% | 2.66 | value: +28% |
| Darmstadt win | 36% | 28% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Salomon Kalou · Hertha |
| 28' | ⚽ | Jordan Torunarigha · Hertha |
| 67' | 🟨 | Aytaç Sulu · Darmstadt |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jan Rosenthal · Darmstadt |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days |
| 1624.00 |
| 832.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1429.88 | 1532.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.49 | -18.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 24.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.75 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.67 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |