← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sat, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sascha Stegemann, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 70% | 67% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.64 | value: +4% |
| FC Augsburg win | 13% | 15% | 7.50 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Matthias Ginter · Borussia Dortmund |
| 28' | ⚽ | Alfreð Finnbogason · FC Augsburg |
| 32' | ⚽ | Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Borussia Dortmund |
| 59' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Stafylidis · FC Augsburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominik Kohr · FC Augsburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Augsburg | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | WWK Arena |
| coach days |
| 346.00 |
| 682.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1506.18 | 1760.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.29 | 3.94 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| league points | 36.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.24 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.12 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |