← Bundesliga 2016-17 · Sun, May 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniel Siebert, Germany
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 41% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
| 1. FSV Mainz 05 win | 31% | 39% | 3.21 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 70' | 🟨 | Gotoku Sakai · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | 🟨 | Giulio Donati · 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Mërgim Mavraj · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 248.00 | 6.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1616.08 | 1639.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.39 | -8.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.71 |
| league points | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 69.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.26 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.41 | 25.83 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |